Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4dc7…4ddd other 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%18W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$10
14 days−$19
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$16
politics 22% −$12
sports 19% −$8
crypto 12% −$7
finance 4% −$5
economics 4% −$1
world 4% −$2
culture 3% −$3
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 62 -0.6% -10.1% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 115 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
all 131 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses18 / 113
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage99d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $226 −$4 -2%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $221 −$1 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $104 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $121 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 14 $112 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $56 −$1 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $53 $0 +1%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $41 +$2 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $55 $0 -1%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $42 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $109 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 05 $44 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $162 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $48 −$3 -7%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $61 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $80 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 03 $49 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $162 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 02 $57 $0 -1%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $10 $0 -2%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $24 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $278 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $41 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $56 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $157 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $57 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $58 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $163 −$1 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $54 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $211 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $64 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $65 8h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $52 9h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $53 14h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $60 14h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $61 20h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $59 20h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $52 29h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $52 36h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $60 36h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 40h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 41h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $58 41h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $58 46h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $56 46h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $56 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $50 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $51 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $57 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $57 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $21 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.53 · official $54.53 (match) · 443 history records