Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4dc8…6655 sports 278 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$172 (+0%) realized +$113 · open +$59
Gross ROI / mkt +484% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +388% what you keep after slip
Net edge+388%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%150W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$604est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$317
7 days−$268
14 days+$472
30 days+$355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$610
other 8% +$51
world 3% −$524
culture 2% −$223
finance 2% +$14
politics 1% +$43
economics 0% −$215
crypto 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+428.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +565.2% +501.8% 45% 42% -43.9%
≤30d 98 +652.1% +580.5% 54% 48% -36.4%
≤90d 276 +484.3% +428.6% 54% 50% -26.5%
all 276 +484.3% +428.6% 54% 50% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +428.6% 50% -26.5%
10% +378.0% 49% -33.5%
15% +331.8% 46% -40.0%
20% +289.5% 45% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +484% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +436% → late +533% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$127 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses150 / 126
Est. fees paid−$604
Open positions2
Markets (closed)276 / 278
History coverage53d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Nikola Bartunkova 35¢ 55¢ $103 $161 +$59 (+57%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 74¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $103 −$1 -1%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $105 +$64 +61%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $105 −$4 -3%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $105 +$86 +82%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $105 −$13 -12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $104 +$17 +16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$1 -1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $104 −$2 -2%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $103 $0 -0%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $103 +$12 +11%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $104 +$123 +118%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $103 +$37 +36%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $102 +$20 +19%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $104 +$67 +64%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $104 −$6 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $105 −$101 -96%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $105 −$105 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $105 −$105 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $104 +$158 +151%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $105 +$88 +84%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $103 −$103 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $105 −$105 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $104 +$98 +95%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $105 +$79 +76%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $103 +$10 +9%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $104 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $105 −$105 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $104 +$67 +64%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $112 +$72 +64%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $104 −$104 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $105 −$105 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $104 −$104 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $105 −$105 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $104 −$7 -7%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $105 −$79 -75%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $2 +$3 +121%
Modena: Xinyu Gao vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 09 $104 −$104 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $104 −$104 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $105 +$75 +72%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $105 +$22 +21%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $105 +$42 +40%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $105 −$105 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $105 +$79 +76%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $105 +$88 +84%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $103 +$113 +109%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $104 +$96 +93%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $104 −$5 -5%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $104 +$38 +37%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $105 $0 +0%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $105 −$105 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 35¢ $105 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 79¢ $100 12h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 74¢ $101 12h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 87¢ $169 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $103 14h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 74¢ $103 16h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $105 17h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar SELL Anna Blinkova 99¢ $189 26h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja BUY Polina Kudermetova 51¢ $105 26h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 54¢ $105 28h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $89 36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 73¢ $118 36h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 72¢ $101 36h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 64¢ $99 36h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) SELL Scotland 94¢ $102 37h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) SELL Haiti 88¢ $113 37h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $105 37h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Scotland 95¢ $103 38h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $104 38h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Haiti 79¢ $103 38h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $103 43h
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa SELL Katarzyna Kawa 99¢ $224 43h
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa BUY Katarzyna Kawa 45¢ $104 44h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 98¢ $138 46h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 72¢ $103 47h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $104 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $121 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 74¢ $170 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No $2 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $98 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.04 · official $161.48 · 2243 history records