Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4dcb…cd0f
crypto · 1607 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$49 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$49 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1500 / 106
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1606 / 1607
History coverage46d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1606 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$17
14 days−$135
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $8 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $8 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $8 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 469 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 1% -9.0%
≤30d 1534 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 1606 -0.3% -9.8% 93% 4% -10.0%
all 1606 -0.3% -9.8% 93% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 4% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 1% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3366 history records