Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4dce…ea78 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (264 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$83 (-7%) realized −$77 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%6W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day264.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$401
weather 10% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (264 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+50.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +66.0% +50.2% 27% 27% -56.0%
≤30d 22 +66.0% +50.2% 27% 27% -56.0%
≤90d 22 +66.0% +50.2% 27% 27% -56.0%
all 22 +66.0% +50.2% 27% 27% -56.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover264.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +50.2% 27% -56.0%
10% ← realistic here +35.8% 27% -60.2%
15% +22.7% 27% -64.1%
20% +10.7% 27% -67.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +186% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$46 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$77
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses6 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day264.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $102 $97 −$5 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $68 −$68 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 26 $43 −$43 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$10 -32%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$66 +321%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 26 $141 −$141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $39 −$33 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $105 −$100 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $42 +$92 +219%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $64 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $133 +$80 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $46 +$63 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$22 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $27 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $12 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $6 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.69 · official $112.12 · 269 history records