Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4D 0x4dd0…c185 other 171 markets active 4d ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$96 (+3%) realized +$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate72%123W / 48L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$55
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$84
sports 32% +$6
politics 5% −$11
crypto 4% +$11
culture 2% +$1
world 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 0% -4.9%
≤30d 11 +41.4% +27.9% 100% 18% +15.6%
≤90d 33 +16.1% +5.1% 94% 30% -1.2%
all 171 -3.8% -12.9% 72% 29% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 29% -7.0%
10% -21.3% 15% -15.9%
15% -28.9% 8% -24.0%
20% -35.8% 6% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses123 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)171 / 171
History coverage545d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 171 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $22 +$2 +8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 18 $37 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$50 +388%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $11 +$2 +17%
Will Dominican Republic win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $27 +$2 +8%
Will CS Huancayo win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $24 +$2 +8%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $7 $0 +3%
Will FK Orenburg win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $56 +$4 +7%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $32 +$3 +10%
Will Zalaegerszeg TE win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $34 +$1 +4%
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-05-15? May 16 $28 +$2 +9%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $33 +$2 +6%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-10? May 12 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $31 +$4 +12%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $27 +$4 +13%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $12 −$6 -54%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $67 +$3 +5%
Will Angers SCO win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $74 +$5 +7%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Apr 23 $56 +$7 +12%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $19 +$3 +16%
Kings vs. Avalanche Apr 20 $18 +$7 +42%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $21 +$4 +17%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CD Nacional end in a draw? Apr 13 $22 +$2 +8%
Will New York City FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 13 $21 +$4 +19%
Will PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-03-30? Apr 01 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-03-26? Mar 29 $14 +$1 +5%
Will FC Fredericia win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Miami Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Jannik Sinner Mar 22 $28 $0 +2%
California Baptist Lancers vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 21 $22 +$3 +12%
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $41 +$4 +10%
Wizards vs. Celtics Mar 15 $21 +$1 +5%
Will CU Técnica de Cajamarca win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $23 +$1 +5%
Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $27 +$4 +16%
Cavaliers vs. Mavericks Mar 14 $37 +$2 +6%
BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria Mboko Mar 13 $7 +$2 +32%
BNP Paribas Open: Arthur Fils vs Alexander Zverev Mar 13 $28 +$1 +3%
BNP Paribas Open: Joao Fonseca vs Jannik Sinner Mar 12 $28 +$3 +10%
Will RFK Akhmat Groznyi win on 2026-03-09? Mar 10 $16 +$4 +27%
Air Force Falcons vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Mar 08 $17 $0 +2%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $22 +$1 +5%
Mavericks vs. Celtics Mar 07 $9 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 95¢ $25 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $25 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $22 9d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 99¢ $37 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $13 16d
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 100¢ $2 18d
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 92¢ $22 19d
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 95¢ $22 21d
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 85¢ $11 23d
Will Dominican Republic win on 2026-06-03? BUY No 92¢ $27 24d
Will CS Huancayo win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 92¢ $24 28d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 91¢ $39 35d
Will FK Orenburg win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 93¢ $33 41d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY No 97¢ $7 41d
Will FK Orenburg win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 93¢ $23 41d
Will Zalaegerszeg TE win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 96¢ $34 42d
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 91¢ $32 42d
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-05-15? BUY No 92¢ $28 44d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? BUY No 94¢ $33 44d
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 95¢ $35 48d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 89¢ $31 50d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 88¢ $27 51d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $30 52d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 53d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 57d
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 95¢ $67 58d
Will Angers SCO win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 93¢ $74 63d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $18 67d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $38 67d
Kings vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 70¢ $18 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 367 history records