Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4dd2…9014 crypto 551 markets active 3h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,508 (-3%) realized −$3,011 · open −$497
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%249W / 301L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$1,342est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,218
7 days+$1,342
14 days+$1,351
30 days+$644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$3,204
crypto 9% −$2,616
other 1% +$642
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +60.1% +44.9% 66% 62% +20.3%
≤30d 42 +40.3% +27.0% 60% 52% +3.4%
≤90d 353 -11.6% -20.0% 45% 42% -11.6%
all 550 -13.0% -21.3% 45% 41% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 41% -12.8%
10% -28.8% 33% -21.2%
15% -35.7% 27% -28.8%
20% -42.0% 21% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$99 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized−$3,011
Unrealized−$497
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses249 / 301
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,342
Open positions1
Markets (closed)550 / 551
History coverage100d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 550 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 16¢ $700 $203 −$497 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 155 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$284 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $101 +$59 +59%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $203 +$181 +89%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $406 +$363 +90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $405 −$265 -65%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 +$148 +73%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $152 −$48 -32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$126 +62%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$1 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $283 +$88 +31%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$65 +65%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$56 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$42 -83%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$122 +596%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$5 -2%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $71 +$96 +135%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 +$44 +146%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$89 +291%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 −$9 -9%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $60 −$30 -50%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $152 −$106 -70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $101 −$1 -1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 +$10 +10%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $224 +$1 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $247 −$75 -30%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $305 −$300 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $25 +$12 +46%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $254 −$250 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $102 +$176 +172%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $409 −$335 -82%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $204 −$145 -71%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $102 +$124 +121%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1,011 −$229 -23%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $304 +$315 +104%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $102 −$94 -92%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $101 −$96 -95%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $405 +$220 +54%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $102 −$94 -92%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 09 $223 +$49 +22%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $153 −$150 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $253 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $254 12h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $203 14h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 71¢ $271 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 15h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $102 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $29 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 22h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $406 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 20¢ $141 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $203 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $203 34h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $19 35h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 35h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 35h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 35h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 51¢ $103 35h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $85 36h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 37h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 84¢ $100 37h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 63¢ $101 37h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 44¢ $34 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.31 · official $203.31 (match) · 1401 history records