Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:38:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4dd7…1441 sports 66 markets active 24h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%35W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$44
14 days−$19
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$16
other 2% +$6
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +19.0% +7.7% 77% 68% +9.2%
≤30d 66 -4.7% -13.8% 53% 45% -11.7%
≤90d 66 -4.7% -13.8% 53% 45% -11.7%
all 66 -4.7% -13.8% 53% 45% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 45% -11.7%
10% -22.0% 42% -20.1%
15% -29.6% 29% -27.8%
20% -36.5% 21% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses35 / 31
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage19d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$5 +26%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 17 $5 +$2 +35%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$5 +25%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $5 +$3 +51%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$6 +31%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$7 +33%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $5 +$8 +163%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $3 +$2 +53%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $1 $0 +35%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $3 +$6 +203%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 +$8 +40%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +29%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $5 +$3 +56%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $5 +$5 +101%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Jason Jung Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Cattolica: Max Hans Rehberg vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $10 +$7 +72%
Modena: Noma Noha Akugue vs Sarah Rakotomanga Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $5 $0 -8%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan Jun 07 $5 +$11 +206%
Libema Open, Qualification: Ella Seidel vs Greet Minnen Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Libema Open, Qualification: Yue Yuan vs Robin Montgomery Jun 06 $5 +$9 +182%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Coleman Wong vs James McCabe Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $5 +$10 +194%
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $20 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 33h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $20 44h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 73¢ $5 47h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 65¢ $5 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 2d
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 92¢ $5 3d
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 91¢ $5 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 37¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $20 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Veronika Erjavec 36¢ $1 4d
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 64¢ $3 4d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Jesper de Jong 32¢ $3 5d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 73¢ $1 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $20 5d
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Snigur 62¢ $5 6d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic SELL Marin Cilic 100¢ $2 6d
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur SELL Alex de Minaur 100¢ $6 6d
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 88¢ $5 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 6d
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Dusan Lajovic 39¢ $5 6d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 44¢ $1 7d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth BUY Jiri Lehecka 68¢ $5 7d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Tallon Griekspoor 41¢ $10 7d
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $5 7d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Victoria Mboko 49¢ $5 7d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens SELL Anastasia Potapova 100¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.32 · official $25.32 (match) · 105 history records