Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:52:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4dd9…2862
sports · 335 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,157 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,939 · open −$244
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$75
Realized−$2,939
Unrealized−$244
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses196 / 123
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions16
Markets (closed)319 / 335
History coverage177d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 16 History 319 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$41
14 days−$2
30 days−$680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 11¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-47%)
Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 21¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 23¢ $30 $13 −$17 (-58%)
Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 29¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-60%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? Yes 38¢ 8¢ $30 $7 −$23 (-78%)
Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 13¢ $14 $5 −$9 (-65%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? Yes 19¢ 3¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-84%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? Yes 62¢ 16¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes 53¢ 10¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-82%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-92%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 26¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Yes 28¢ 5¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? Yes 70¢ 1¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 37¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Over 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$8 +165%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $21 +$34 +164%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $5 +$4 +86%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $50 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$9 +85%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May? Jun 02 $51 +$30 +58%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? May 19 $11 −$10 -90%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? May 19 $31 −$27 -87%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+1.5) May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 19 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 19 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 19 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 19 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 19 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 19 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 19 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 19 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Chin May 19 $40 −$31 -78%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 19 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 19 $66 −$19 -29%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 19 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 19 $111 −$111 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 19 $30 −$9 -30%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 19 $5 +$1 +29%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 19 $10 +$7 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 51% −$1,028
other 31% −$795
tech 8% −$965
finance 6% −$133
world 2% −$74
crypto 1% −$57
politics 1% −$124
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 60¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 1h
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 6d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 23¢ $10 8d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 34¢ $9 8d
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 11d
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 11d
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 11d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 11d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 32¢ $10 12d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 53¢ $5 12d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 12d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 22¢ $5 12d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 25d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Red Force 67¢ $5 25d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $5 25d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 85¢ $5 25d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Nongshim Red Force 74¢ $15 25d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 25d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 48¢ $10 25d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Red Force 57¢ $15 25d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 26d
Will Solana reach $110 in May? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 26d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 26d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Red Force 86¢ $10 27d
Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) BUY DN SOOPers 66¢ $10 27d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $10 27d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Red Force 72¢ $5 27d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea BUY Nongshim Red Force 77¢ $5 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +10.0% -0.4% 50% 50% -38.9%
≤30d 60 -43.4% -48.8% 33% 30% -55.2%
≤90d 183 -16.8% -24.8% 54% 47% -28.7%
all 319 -12.6% -20.9% 61% 47% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 47% -29.3%
10% -28.5% 29% -36.1%
15% -35.4% 20% -42.3%
20% -41.7% 13% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.27 · official $75.27 (match) · 913 history records