trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 10 | -3.3% | -12.5% | 70% | 60% | -4.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.5% | 60% | -4.3% |
| 10% | -20.9% | 0% | -13.5% |
| 15% | -28.5% | 0% | -21.8% |
| 20% | -35.5% | 0% | -29.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 18¢ | $100 | $115 | +$15 (+15%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 13¢ | $100 | $82 | −$18 (-18%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Yes | 52¢ | 38¢ | $100 | $74 | −$26 (-26%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Nov 04 | $16,688 | +$855 | +5% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Oct 26 | $20 | −$6 | -29% |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Oct 25 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | Sep 16 | $654 | +$100 | +15% |
| US recession in 2025? | Sep 16 | $657 | +$129 | +20% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | Jun 24 | $200 | +$23 | +12% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July? | Jun 24 | $100 | +$11 | +11% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15? | Jun 24 | $150 | −$150 | -100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? | Jun 23 | $570 | +$95 | +17% |
| Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September? | Jun 23 | $466 | +$76 | +16% |