Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4D 0x4ddc…be18 crypto 318 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$160 (+2%) realized +$160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate78%246W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$34
14 days+$84
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$45
sports 28% +$10
other 14% +$58
politics 6% −$2
world 5% +$23
economics 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$10
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -5.7% -14.7% 72% 41% -5.5%
≤30d 127 +1.4% -8.3% 80% 42% -7.5%
≤90d 261 -0.8% -10.3% 76% 40% -7.5%
all 316 -1.0% -10.4% 78% 36% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 36% -8.3%
10% -19.0% 23% -17.1%
15% -26.8% 15% -25.1%
20% -34.0% 10% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized+$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses246 / 70
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)316 / 318
History coverage198d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 316 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 75¢ 67¢ $150 $134 −$16 (-11%)
Will the IEM Cologne Major 2026 Grand Final be a sweep? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $40 $56 +$16 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$7 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $122 +$43 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$1 +26%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 19 $98 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$4 +22%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $30 +$6 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $7 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$5 +86%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $166 +$18 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $130 +$33 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $93 +$37 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $89 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $73 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $76 +$12 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $14 +$6 +45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6 +$4 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $13 +$4 +31%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $140 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $10 +$5 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $151 1h
Will the IEM Cologne Major 2026 Grand Final be a sweep? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 67¢ $10 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $8 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 71¢ $15 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 15¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $10 26h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 26h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $6 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $6 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 40h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $0 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.00 · official $190.00 (match) · 838 history records