Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4D 0x4dde…6b53 sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,965 (+16%) realized +$7,438 · open −$3,473
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate68%27W / 13L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$583per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$430est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$703
other 12% +$741
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +23.3% +11.5% 58% 58% +3.6%
≤30d 40 +23.4% +11.6% 68% 50% +6.3%
≤90d 40 +23.4% +11.6% 68% 50% +6.3%
all 40 +23.4% +11.6% 68% 50% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.6% 50% +6.3%
10% ← realistic here +0.9% 50% -3.9%
15% -8.8% 48% -13.2%
20% -17.8% 45% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$569) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +31% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$330 vs −$415 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$7,438
Unrealized−$3,473
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses27 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$430
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage9d
Avg bet$583
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner FURIA 38¢ $2,478 $3 −$2,474 (-100%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Rune Eaters 44¢ $1,000 $1 −$999 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $495 −$459 -93%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $69 +$50 +73%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $19 −$19 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $2,367 +$1,596 +67%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $355 +$290 +82%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $961 −$571 -60%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,426 −$1,407 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $563 +$524 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,028 +$542 +53%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $569 +$451 +79%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $606 −$33 -6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $387 +$212 +55%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $362 +$528 +146%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,070 +$859 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,111 −$146 -13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,247 −$443 -36%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $494 +$1,298 +263%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $494 +$147 +30%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $489 −$483 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,013 −$995 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $318 +$180 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,042 −$209 -20%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $64 +$60 +94%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $447 +$523 +117%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $227 +$216 +95%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 14 $80 +$2 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $326 +$320 +98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 13 $28 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-9.5) vs 9z (+9.5) Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $259 +$534 +206%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $261 −$261 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $127 −$125 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $496 +$258 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $256 −$250 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $98 +$156 +158%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $275 +$159 +58%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $429 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 38¢ $2,524 56m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports $35 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 13¢ $495 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 44¢ $1,017 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 14¢ $19 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $69 6h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 59¢ $2,367 17h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner SELL Los Angeles Thieves 100¢ $645 18h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $389 18h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $961 18h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 54¢ $355 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 42¢ $335 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 60¢ $1,091 19h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $588 23h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $499 23h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $563 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 78¢ $1,570 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,028 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $569 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $572 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $606 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $387 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $362 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 42¢ $871 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 51¢ $1,079 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 53¢ $2,058 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 25¢ $991 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $447 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 39¢ $450 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 67¢ $801 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.41 · official $4.41 (match) · 93 history records