Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4de7…5c32 sports 386 markets active 1d ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$191 (-10%) realized −$117 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate67%255W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$26
14 days−$17
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$1
other 30% −$158
crypto 11% −$28
world 1% −$8
tech 0% +$2
finance 0% −$4
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +0.5% -9.1% 64% 39% -21.0%
≤30d 95 +3.4% -6.4% 63% 48% -15.3%
≤90d 293 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 51% -11.9%
all 381 -1.6% -11.0% 67% 52% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 52% -17.1%
10% -19.5% 39% -25.0%
15% -27.3% 28% -32.3%
20% -34.4% 21% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$349
Realized−$117
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses255 / 126
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)381 / 386
History coverage102d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 381 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $200 $176 −$24 (-12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $200 $145 −$55 (-27%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+32%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 61¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$3 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +226%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $11 +$1 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 +$10 +57%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +158%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1 +$1 +146%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 $0 +17%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $3 +$2 +70%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $3 +$3 +83%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1 $0 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 33h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 4d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $11 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 28¢ $2 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 95¢ $2 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 58¢ $3 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $2 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $348.64 · official $348.64 (match) · 857 history records