Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4D 0x4de8…76ba crypto 504 markets active 0h ago coverage 408d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,788 (-6%) realized −$4,589 · open −$199
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate20%99W / 404L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 408d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$15,795
other 2% +$4,730
sports 0% −$100
world 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -20.8% -28.4% 28% 28% -16.8%
≤30d 243 -33.7% -40.1% 15% 15% -34.0%
≤90d 397 -21.5% -29.0% 20% 19% -29.7%
all 503 -21.8% -29.2% 20% 19% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 19% -28.9%
10% -36.0% 19% -35.7%
15% -42.2% 18% -41.9%
20% -47.9% 18% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$395 vs −$124 · ×3.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

408d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4,589
Unrealized−$199
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses99 / 404
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)503 / 504
History coverage408d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 503 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $200 $1 −$199 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 385 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $1,042 +$1,105 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $608 −$580 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $628 −$600 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $627 −$600 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $523 −$300 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $738 −$700 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $317 +$1,296 +409%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $421 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $1,255 −$600 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $756 −$716 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $1,049 +$472 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $940 −$833 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $418 +$679 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $847 +$405 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $735 −$300 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $328 +$1,705 +519%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $439 +$772 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $360 −$341 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $252 +$544 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $651 −$620 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $874 −$213 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $1,005 −$544 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $420 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $858 +$252 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $518 +$695 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $491 −$140 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $163 +$179 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $126 +$314 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$88 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $106 −$100 -95%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $102 −$98 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $108 −$103 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $130 −$124 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $123 −$116 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $113 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $116 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $147 −$140 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $157 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $139 −$132 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $355 −$230 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$173 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $154 −$145 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $106 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $106 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $106 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $106 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $85 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $84 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.15 · official $334.71 · 1224 history records