Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4de9…41de other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-4%) realized −$1 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$7
sports 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -7.5% -16.3% 0% 0% -16.3%
≤30d 1 -7.5% -16.3% 0% 0% -16.3%
≤90d 1 -7.5% -16.3% 0% 0% -16.3%
all 1 -7.5% -16.3% 0% 0% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 0% -16.3%
10% -24.3% 0% -24.3%
15% -31.6% 0% -31.6%
20% -38.3% 0% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 7m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.34 · official $138.34 (match) · 6 history records