Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4deb…f53d world 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate46%25W / 29L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% $0
other 15% +$3
politics 8% +$2
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.0% -6.8% 50% 10% -9.3%
≤30d 24 +1.3% -8.4% 42% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 24 +1.3% -8.4% 42% 8% -9.4%
all 54 +1.0% -8.6% 46% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 7% -9.2%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses25 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage450d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $80 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $96 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $98 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $59 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $4 $0 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $53 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $28 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $38 −$5 -12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $23 +$3 +11%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $54 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $53 +$2 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $58 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $58 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $52 +$1 +1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $ Jun 10 $16 $0 +2%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 14 $15 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 10 $15 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 09 $14 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 09 $16 $0 -1%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $15 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $15 $0 +2%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci May 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jose Vinicius Junior win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from South America? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? May 05 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $12 52m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $15 52m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $27 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $45 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $6 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $11 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $34 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $24 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $27 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $2 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $54 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $54 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $60 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $60 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records