Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4deb…4326 crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate71%42W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$6
crypto 8% +$1
sports 7% −$27
world 2% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 59 -1.1% -10.5% 71% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 2% -10.0%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses42 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage588d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 01 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? Dec 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $32 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? Aug 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 22 $11 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 22 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 03 $8 $0 +1%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $5,407 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will another model be the top AI model on January 31? Feb 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? Jan 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will BSW win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will another party win the second most seats in the next German electi Jan 21 $55 $0 -0%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Dec 26 $25 −$5 -20%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? Dec 26 $28 −$6 -20%
Everton wins the Premier League? Dec 26 $27 −$7 -25%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Dec 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $26 −$2 -7%
Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship? Dec 13 $34 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 30d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 61d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $32 62d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $39 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 121d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $34 123d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $22 151d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $23 152d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 183d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $8 183d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $47 183d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? BUY No 100¢ $45 212d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $6 241d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 242d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $29 242d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $6 272d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $13 272d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $32 273d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 303d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $35 303d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 334d
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? BUY No 100¢ $29 335d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? BUY No 100¢ $9 365d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 366d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 393d
Ethereum all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 394d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.96 · official $48.96 (match) · 139 history records