Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4dec…73d8 crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52 (-5%) realized −$75 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%54W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$46
14 days−$47
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$23
crypto 33% −$35
sports 14% −$4
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +5.6% -4.4% 48% 44% -17.9%
≤30d 31 -3.6% -12.8% 45% 42% -18.7%
≤90d 33 -1.2% -10.6% 48% 42% -17.1%
all 116 -7.0% -15.8% 47% 34% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 34% -17.8%
10% -23.9% 24% -25.7%
15% -31.2% 16% -32.9%
20% -38.0% 12% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses54 / 62
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage107d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $32 $55 +$23 (+71%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $51 +$1 +1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $6 +$1 +21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +15%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $49 +$27 +55%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $45 +$21 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 +$48 +388%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $39 +$18 +46%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 +$16 +73%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 +$20 +262%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 +$18 +79%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$11 +442%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$9 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$15 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 15 $17 $0 +2%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 21 $12 −$8 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 12 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 12 $12 −$4 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 12 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 11 $8 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 11 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 11 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Mar 11 $18 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 11 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 09 $4 −$2 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 09 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 09 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 09 $6 −$1 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $52 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 82¢ $6 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $70 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $49 35h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $17 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $45 46h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $39 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $22 5d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $7 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $17 6d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $2 6d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $16 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $18 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.98 · official $62.98 (match) · 522 history records