Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4def…06e6 sports 536 markets active 4d ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$751 (-13%) realized −$751 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%162W / 373L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$81
14 days−$92
30 days−$515
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$597
other 19% −$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -23.2% -30.5% 5% 5% -36.4%
≤30d 472 -20.4% -27.9% 30% 28% -19.2%
≤90d 535 -22.5% -29.8% 30% 28% -22.4%
all 535 -22.5% -29.8% 30% 28% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.8% 28% -22.4%
10% ← realistic here -36.6% 24% -29.8%
15% -42.7% 21% -36.6%
20% -48.3% 18% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$751
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses162 / 373
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions1
Markets (closed)535 / 536
History coverage30d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 535 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 335 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $11 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 12 $12 −$11 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $11 −$10 -98%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $0 $0 -97%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $11 −$11 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $12 +$106 +874%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $0 $0 -97%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Clement Tabur Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Cattolica: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $10 −$9 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $10 −$9 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
ITF Guimaraes: Angelina Voloshchuk vs Aliona Falei Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $0 $0 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $4 −$3 -97%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Junhan Zhang Jun 11 $9 −$9 -97%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $4 +$70 +1845%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $0 $0 -97%
Spread: Málaga CF (-1.5) Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -97%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $0 $0 -97%
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Tomas Martinez Jun 10 $13 −$13 -97%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $11 +$56 +525%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 2 Winner BUY Gaming By Legends $12 4d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group BUY Sashi Academy 11¢ $9 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies $1 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay $1 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals $11 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 13¢ $11 4d
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South BUY Gior Dota Team $12 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over $0 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over $12 5d
Valencia vs. Joventut BUY Joventut $11 5d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Thiago Cigarran 15¢ $10 5d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Thiago Cigarran 15¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z $2 5d
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Keegan Smith 13¢ $11 5d
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz BUY Leyre Romero Gormaz 11¢ $0 5d
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz BUY Leyre Romero Gormaz 11¢ $11 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 10¢ $12 5d
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter BUY Jaqueline Cristian $0 5d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire $11 5d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire $1 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 10¢ $11 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners $8 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates $1 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates $0 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates $0 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates $6 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates $3 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates $0 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates $0 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 900 history records