Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:16:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4def…b34f crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$134 (-15%) realized −$128 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day57.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$145
other 23% −$12
world 11% −$6
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-56.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -51.6% -56.2% 28% 22% -29.0%
≤30d 18 -51.6% -56.2% 28% 22% -29.0%
≤90d 18 -51.6% -56.2% 28% 22% -29.0%
all 18 -51.6% -56.2% 28% 22% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.2% 22% -29.0%
10% ← realistic here -60.4% 22% -35.8%
15% -64.2% 22% -42.0%
20% -67.8% 22% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -73% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$23 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$128
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Open positions13
Markets (closed)18 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? No 85¢ 97¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 79¢ 78¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 73¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 92¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 28¢ 12¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-55%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 47¢ 39¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$13 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $205 −$12 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $43 +$30 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $83 +$71 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $97 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.48 · official $165.26 · 68 history records