Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:49:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4df0…7939 sports 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$771 (+7%) realized +$817 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%20W / 28L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$508
7 days+$137
14 days+$136
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$18
other 11% +$282
crypto 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +11.3% +0.7% 45% 40% -7.5%
≤30d 43 +9.2% -1.2% 44% 40% -7.6%
≤90d 43 +9.2% -1.2% 44% 40% -7.6%
all 48 +2.2% -7.5% 42% 38% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 38% -7.2%
10% -16.4% 35% -16.0%
15% -24.5% 25% -24.1%
20% -31.9% 19% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$62 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$817
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses20 / 28
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage241d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 46¢ $150 $111 −$39 (-26%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $250 +$69 +28%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $386 −$189 -49%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $180 +$3 +2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $373 −$235 -63%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 −$26 -26%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $688 +$250 +36%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $41 −$36 -86%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $282 −$155 -55%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $183 −$148 -81%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $263 +$10 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$50 +97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $317 +$141 +45%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$50 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $111 +$31 +28%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $182 +$60 +33%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 +$53 +104%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$87 +43%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$12 -11%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 +$79 +156%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $51 −$35 -69%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $213 +$118 +55%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$38 -73%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$29 -94%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $213 +$59 +28%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $91 −$18 -20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$10 -10%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 +$101 +140%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$88 +87%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$69 -68%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $123 −$5 -4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$16 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $152 −$51 -33%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $310 −$1 -0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $51 $0 -1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$204 +200%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $94 −$67 -71%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $129 −$126 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $123 −$55 -45%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $207 +$180 +87%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $149 −$1 -0%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $3,003 +$346 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $312 −$102 -33%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) Oct 24 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Oct 24 $69 −$69 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 20m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 89¢ $319 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $149 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 5¢ $18 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 14¢ $51 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $182 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $180 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 22¢ $179 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 28¢ $95 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $138 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $138 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $140 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $131 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 36¢ $75 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 98¢ $541 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $141 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $131 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 82¢ $397 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $162 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $152 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 8¢ $8 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 19¢ $19 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.81 · official $153.81 (match) · 161 history records