Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4df2…7623
politics · 125 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$59 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$59 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$68
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 110
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage96d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 1 History 124 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $459 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $117 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 16 $58 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $564 −$2 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $251 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 14 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 13 $121 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $66 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $127 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 11 $122 −$1 -1%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 11 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $55 $0 -1%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 09 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $93 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $143 −$1 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 08 $49 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $259 −$2 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $175 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $121 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 05 $112 −$3 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $64 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 04 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $383 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 03 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $114 −$1 -1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $51 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $63 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $273 −$2 -1%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $48 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $53 $0 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $56 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 32% −$22
other 26% −$15
sports 22% −$14
crypto 10% −$4
world 4% −$4
economics 3% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $68 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $58 13d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $59 13d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $61 27d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $61 27d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $58 27d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $59 27d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $58 27d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $59 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 95¢ $57 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $58 28d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $63 28d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $63 28d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 28d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $61 28d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $62 28d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $62 28d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $72 28d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $72 29d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $69 29d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $69 29d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 90¢ $64 29d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 91¢ $65 29d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $65 29d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $65 30d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $70 30d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $70 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 97¢ $64 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $64 30d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $63 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 117 -0.4% -9.9% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 124 -0.4% -9.9% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.84 · official $67.98 (match) · 483 history records