Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4D 0x4df7…2048 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$30 (-20%) realized −$32 · open +$52
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$10
other 42% +$8
politics 3% $0
world 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-54.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -50.0% -54.8% 29% 29% -52.7%
≤30d 14 -50.0% -54.8% 29% 29% -52.7%
≤90d 14 -50.0% -54.8% 29% 29% -52.7%
all 14 -50.0% -54.8% 29% 29% -52.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.8% 29% -52.7%
10% -59.1% 29% -57.2%
15% -63.0% 29% -61.3%
20% -66.7% 21% -65.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -71% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)14 / 30
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 15¢ 100¢ $4 $27 +$23 (+563%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 100¢ $5 $19 +$14 (+270%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 94¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+82%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Over 48¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+107%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 64¢ 76¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 45¢ 84¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+88%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 44¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$4 +78%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$4 +78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +104%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $4 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $5 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $5 45h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 45h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 45h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 45h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 45h
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $5 45h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 45h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 45h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 45h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 45h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 45h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 44¢ $5 46h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.14 · official $123.88 · 42 history records