Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e0a…8a9b world 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate65%13W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$1
other 14% −$5
sports 7% $0
weather 4% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -4.2% -13.3% 65% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -10.2%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.8%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses13 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage473d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $112 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $42 −$1 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $17 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by next Friday? Mar 16 $16 +$1 +5%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $46 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $46 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $39 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $3 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $33 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $9 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $8 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $39 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $46 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $40 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $34 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $37 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $37 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $27 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $15 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $5 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $12 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $25 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records