trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $587 | $343 | −$245 (-42%) |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $250 | $125 | −$125 (-50%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | No | 8¢ | 5¢ | $186 | $119 | −$67 (-36%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | No | 4¢ | 3¢ | $122 | $92 | −$31 (-25%) |
| Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $190 | $0 | −$190 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? | Jun 10 | $191 | −$190 | -99% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| 15% | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| 20% | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |