Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4e0e…95eb crypto 96 markets active 18h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$97 (+0%) realized +$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%88W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$357per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$37
14 days+$60
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$95
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 23 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 53 +0.3% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.2%
all 93 -3.0% -12.2% 95% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.0%
15% -28.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,006) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.26 per $1 lost it wins $4.26
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses88 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)93 / 96
History coverage156d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,086 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,076 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,070 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,069 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,066 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,062 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,055 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,053 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,048 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,051 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,033 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1,038 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,032 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,027 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1,026 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1,023 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $1,015 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $1,014 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,008 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $1,000 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $997 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $997 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2? May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? May 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27? Apr 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? Apr 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? Apr 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 12? Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? Apr 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 4? Apr 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 31? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,086 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $658 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $29 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $32 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $346 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,069 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,066 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,062 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,055 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $953 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,048 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $599 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $452 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1,033 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $376 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $199 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $398 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $65 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,032 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,027 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $828 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,023 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,015 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,014 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $995 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $1,008 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.18 · official $7.18 (match) · 211 history records