Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e0f…1d0d sports 4 markets active 7d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-11%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$1
other 41% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.5% -13.6% 25% 25% -21.9%
≤30d 4 -4.5% -13.6% 25% 25% -21.9%
≤90d 4 -4.5% -13.6% 25% 25% -21.9%
all 4 -4.5% -13.6% 25% 25% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 25% -21.9%
10% -21.9% 25% -29.4%
15% -29.4% 25% -36.2%
20% -36.3% 25% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $5 +$10 +187%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $9 $0 -5%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 74¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 6d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL No 24¢ $2 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 25¢ $2 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records