Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e10…e6ce other 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%17W / 243L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$41
sports 25% −$22
economics 7% −$8
culture 7% −$7
politics 6% −$4
world 5% −$4
crypto 4% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 260 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)260 / 260
History coverage138d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 260 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $452 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $518 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $444 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $638 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $293 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $129 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $306 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $737 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $541 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $527 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $264 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $264 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $650 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $219 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $157 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $374 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $141 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $155 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $158 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $532 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $141 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $599 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $60 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 3h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $60 4h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $60 5h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 10h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 12h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 16h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 18h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 19h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 20h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $61 32h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 35h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $61 45h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $61 47h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $61 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $61 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $61 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $61 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1414 history records