trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 21 | -24.0% | -31.3% | 29% | 19% | -35.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -31.3% | 19% | -35.6% |
| 10% | -37.8% | 19% | -41.8% |
| 15% | -43.9% | 19% | -47.4% |
| 20% | -49.4% | 19% | -52.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $917 | $917 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | No | 40¢ | 36¢ | $42 | $37 | −$5 (-11%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: BAL (-4.5) | Sep 22 | $41 | −$41 | -100% |
| Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Sep 22 | $21 | +$21 | +100% |
| Blue Jays vs. Rays | Sep 17 | $11 | +$11 | +100% |
| Buccaneers vs. Texans | Sep 16 | $4 | +$5 | +127% |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Jul 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Jul 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Solana dip to $80 in June? | Jul 15 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? | Jun 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | May 19 | $3 | $0 | -3% |
| Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend | May 15 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 | May 15 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will another person be the next President of Croatia? | May 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Nicolae Ciucă win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | May 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? | May 08 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 30 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 27 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Canucks vs. Hurricanes | Jan 13 | $136 | +$99 | +72% |
| Kraken vs. Blue Jackets | Jan 10 | $104 | −$104 | -100% |
| Panthers vs. Utah | Jan 09 | $101 | −$101 | -100% |
| Who will speak more at VP Debate? | Oct 02 | $24 | −$24 | -100% |