Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e11…40ff politics 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$140 (-10%) realized −$135 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate29%6W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$954now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$6
sports 29% −$111
other 6% −$28
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 21 -24.0% -31.3% 29% 19% -35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 19% -35.6%
10% -37.8% 19% -41.8%
15% -43.9% 19% -47.4%
20% -49.4% 19% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$954
Realized−$135
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses6 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage633d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $917 $917 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 40¢ 36¢ $42 $37 −$5 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: BAL (-4.5) Sep 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Giants vs. Diamondbacks Sep 22 $21 +$21 +100%
Blue Jays vs. Rays Sep 17 $11 +$11 +100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 16 $4 +$5 +127%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 19 $3 $0 -3%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will another person be the next President of Croatia? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nicolae Ciucă win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 -0%
Canucks vs. Hurricanes Jan 13 $136 +$99 +72%
Kraken vs. Blue Jackets Jan 10 $104 −$104 -100%
Panthers vs. Utah Jan 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 02 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $43 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $917 1h
Spread: BAL (-4.5) BUY BAL 51¢ $41 277d
Giants vs. Diamondbacks BUY Giants 50¢ $21 282d
Blue Jays vs. Rays BUY Blue Jays 50¢ $11 283d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Buccaneers 44¢ $4 284d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 333d
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 345d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY No 99¢ $3 368d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 403d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 403d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5 406d
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend SELL No 99¢ $5 407d
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend BUY No 99¢ $5 407d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 SELL No 99¢ $5 407d
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 408d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 BUY No 99¢ $5 408d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? SELL No 98¢ $5 414d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 414d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 94¢ $5 422d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 422d
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 95¢ $5 425d
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 95¢ $5 427d
Will Nicolae Ciucă win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? BUY Yes $1 518d
Canucks vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 58¢ $136 532d
Kraken vs. Blue Jackets BUY Kraken 52¢ $104 533d
Will another person be the next President of Croatia? BUY Yes $1 534d
Panthers vs. Utah BUY Utah 44¢ $101 534d
Who will speak more at VP Debate? BUY Vance 63¢ $24 633d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $953.81 · official $953.81 (match) · 41 history records