Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:47:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e18…6c59 crypto 1350 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$741 (-3%) realized −$732 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate83%1116W / 233L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day112.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days−$920
14 days−$879
30 days−$775
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$739
other 1% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 509 -14.8% -22.9% 73% 12% -19.3%
≤30d 1349 -4.2% -13.3% 83% 15% -12.6%
≤90d 1349 -4.2% -13.3% 83% 15% -12.6%
all 1349 -4.2% -13.3% 83% 15% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 15% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 7% -21.0%
15% -29.2% 4% -28.6%
20% -36.1% 3% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$732
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses1116 / 233
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1349 / 1350
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day112.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? No 90¢ 71¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$11 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$17 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $61 −$8 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 75¢ $10 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $29 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 52m
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.34 · official $31.34 (match) · 3500 history records