Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4e1f…ff77 other 13 markets active 3h ago coverage 729d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13,053 (-96%) realized −$13,213 · open +$160
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,048per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$480now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,181
7 days−$13,181
14 days−$13,181
30 days−$13,181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$13,180
other 3% +$144
politics 0% −$15
world 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 12 -34.9% -41.1% 50% 25% -99.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 25% -99.5%
10% -46.8% 25% -99.6%
15% -51.9% 25% -99.6%
20% -56.6% 17% -99.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2,204 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

729d coverage
Net worth$480
Realized−$13,213
Unrealized+$160
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage729d
Avg bet$1,048
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $320 $480 +$160 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $13,210 −$13,181 -100%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Oct 09 $2 +$1 +59%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 09 $11 $0 +2%
Litecoin ETF approved by July 31? Aug 01 $7 +$3 +44%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? May 31 $22 −$22 -100%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? May 31 $20 +$1 +6%
Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ukraine win? Jan 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 11 $4 $0 +4%
Solana ETF approved by July 31? Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Dec 29 $10 +$7 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $42 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $133 3h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $143 3h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 58¢ $6 36h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 58¢ $4,153 36h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 57¢ $1,643 36h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 74¢ $548 37h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 74¢ $142 37h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 74¢ $1,138 37h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 74¢ $427 37h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 74¢ $393 37h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 74¢ $1,138 37h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 74¢ $317 37h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 74¢ $181 37h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 74¢ $1,057 37h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 74¢ $1,057 37h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 74¢ $1,008 37h
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $19 259d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 86¢ $3 259d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $11 259d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 282d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $11 327d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $11 389d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $11 389d
Litecoin ETF approved by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $2 486d
Litecoin ETF approved by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $5 529d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $479.62 · official $479.62 (match) · 46 history records