trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 12 | -34.9% | -41.1% | 50% | 25% | -99.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -41.1% | 25% | -99.5% |
| 10% | -46.8% | 25% | -99.6% |
| 15% | -51.9% | 25% | -99.6% |
| 20% | -56.6% | 17% | -99.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $320 | $480 | +$160 (+50%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Portugal (-4.5) | Jun 23 | $13,210 | −$13,181 | -100% |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? | Oct 09 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Oct 09 | $2 | +$1 | +59% |
| Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? | Oct 09 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Litecoin ETF approved by July 31? | Aug 01 | $7 | +$3 | +44% |
| Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | May 31 | $22 | −$22 | -100% |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? | May 31 | $20 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? | Feb 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Ukraine win? | Jan 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? | Jan 11 | $4 | $0 | +4% |
| Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Dec 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Dec 29 | $10 | +$7 | +67% |