Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:05:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4E 0x4e20…e3c8 sports 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,125 (-3%) realized −$1,914 · open +$789
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%59W / 78L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$622est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$416
7 days−$1,027
14 days+$4,126
30 days+$1,210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$698
other 0% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -25.6% -32.7% 40% 40% -28.9%
≤30d 62 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 48% -4.6%
≤90d 137 -8.8% -17.5% 43% 42% -13.6%
all 137 -8.8% -17.5% 43% 42% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 42% -13.6%
10% -25.4% 40% -21.9%
15% -32.6% 36% -29.4%
20% -39.2% 27% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$169 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$1,635
Realized−$1,914
Unrealized+$789
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses59 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$622
Open positions2
Markets (closed)137 / 139
History coverage89d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 50¢ 100¢ $812 $1,622 +$811 (+100%)
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 10¢ $34 $12 −$22 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $436 +$346 +79%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $297 −$293 -99%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $477 +$189 +40%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $484 +$174 +36%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $445 +$133 +30%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 20 $745 −$738 -99%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $136 −$133 -98%
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Phantom (+1.5) Jun 20 $56 −$55 -98%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $108 −$107 -99%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $474 −$470 -99%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) Jun 19 $254 −$250 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $147 +$234 +158%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $54 −$15 -28%
StarCraft II: MaxPax vs SHIN (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 18 $144 +$143 +99%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 18 $150 +$146 +97%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $149 −$147 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $139 −$137 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 17 $39 −$39 -98%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Estar Backs (+1.5) Jun 17 $43 +$33 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $95 −$93 -99%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $104 −$102 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1,394 +$60 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $426 +$74 +17%
Games Total: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $31 +$28 +90%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $117 −$114 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $178 −$178 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $2,396 +$1,357 +57%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Jo Jun 13 $29 +$12 +40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $436 +$471 +108%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $411 +$820 +200%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $621 +$258 +42%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $485 +$591 +122%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $308 +$587 +190%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $603 −$541 -90%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $484 −$480 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $510 +$478 +94%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $72 +$60 +84%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $77 +$63 +81%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $261 +$267 +102%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $616 +$909 +148%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $588 +$277 +47%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $1,029 −$1,016 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $1,214 +$519 +43%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $691 +$848 +123%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pl Jun 09 $30 +$79 +262%
Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $201 −$200 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $111 +$66 +60%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $741 −$731 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $824 1h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 Minnesota 55¢ $436 30h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 53¢ $121 39h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 53¢ $176 39h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $745 2d
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York - Game 3 Winner BUY Miami Heretics 77¢ $435 2d
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York - Game 3 Winner BUY Miami Heretics 77¢ $7 2d
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York - Game 3 Winner BUY Miami Heretics 77¢ $4 2d
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 73¢ $484 2d
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 48¢ $136 2d
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Phantom (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 35¢ $56 2d
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York - Game 2 Winner BUY Miami Heretics 68¢ $108 2d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York - Game 2 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 74¢ $474 3d
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) BUY SHISHKA 50¢ $254 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 69¢ $45 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 69¢ $9 4d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 71¢ $477 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $147 4d
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) BUY TDK 49¢ $144 4d
StarCraft II: MaxPax vs SHIN (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs BUY SHIN 24¢ $42 4d
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) BUY PlayTime 50¢ $150 5d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 44¢ $149 5d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 44¢ $139 5d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $39 5d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 10¢ $35 5d
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Estar Backs (+1.5) BUY PlayTime 56¢ $43 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $81 7d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $34 7d
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) BUY Hokori 40¢ $37 7d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 82¢ $1,453 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,634.54 · official $1,634.54 (match) · 523 history records