Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e23…509f other 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%18W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$14
14 days−$29
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$29
politics 20% −$13
sports 19% −$13
crypto 11% −$7
world 5% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 3% −$2
tech 3% −$7
culture 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.7% -10.2% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 62 -1.0% -10.4% 10% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 108 -0.6% -10.1% 13% 0% -9.9%
all 130 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses18 / 112
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage106d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $258 −$4 -2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $244 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $47 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $118 −$3 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $64 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $121 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $164 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 14 $40 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $55 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $55 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $91 −$1 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 11 $111 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $54 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $65 $0 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $207 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $363 $0 +0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 07 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $60 −$4 -6%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $157 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $36 −$4 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $160 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $62 $0 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $46 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $196 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $36 $0 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $316 −$3 -1%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $117 −$2 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $53 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 8h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $57 9h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $57 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 23h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $59 23h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $59 28h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $47 29h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $25 35h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $22 35h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $54 36h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $56 44h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $64 44h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $64 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $63 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $45 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $11 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $44 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $44 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $59 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $59 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $40 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $40 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 96¢ $45 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $46 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.72 · official $50.72 (match) · 506 history records