Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4E 0x4e36…45a0 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$27
politics 11% −$4
other 8% +$36
economics 2% $0
sports 1% +$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 44 +1.1% -8.5% 23% 16% -8.7%
all 59 +0.8% -8.8% 25% 14% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 14% -9.5%
10% -17.5% 14% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 12% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage609d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+0%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $131 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $19 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 11 $115 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $107 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $114 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $226 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $339 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $216 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $231 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 23 $115 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 +$5 +72%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $10 +$5 +52%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Canucks vs. Flames Apr 06 $17 −$17 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Apr 06 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 06 $24 $0 +0%
Devils vs. Rangers Apr 06 $20 +$22 +108%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $27 +$26 +96%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 26 $27 +$21 +75%
Wild vs. Blackhawks Mar 23 $24 +$15 +61%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-03-16? Mar 17 $23 +$7 +30%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Mar 05 $91 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Feb 13 $87 +$4 +5%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Dec 23 $13,527 −$27 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $20 3h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $20 4h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 28h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 30h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 45h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 46h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $68 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 12d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 14d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 14d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $13 14d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $13 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 16d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 16d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $24 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $24 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 18d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 18d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 25d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 25d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $17 25d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $17 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.96 · official $99.96 (match) · 270 history records