Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:02:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e38…6767 crypto 703 markets active 4d ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$138 (-8%) realized −$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%235W / 468L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$48
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$193
other 4% −$1
weather 1% −$15
world 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -15.7% -23.7% 39% 39% -18.9%
≤30d 317 -1.2% -10.6% 37% 36% -11.1%
≤90d 684 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 32% -21.9%
all 703 -8.5% -17.2% 33% 33% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 33% -20.7%
10% -25.1% 32% -28.3%
15% -32.4% 30% -35.2%
20% -39.0% 30% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses235 / 468
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)703 / 703
History coverage118d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 703 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$5 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 5d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 5d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 5d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1582 history records