Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4E 0x4e3b…6455 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+5%) realized +$38 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 174d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$5
crypto 34% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.5% -4.5% 100% 0% -4.5%
≤30d 1 +5.5% -4.5% 100% 0% -4.5%
≤90d 1 +5.5% -4.5% 100% 0% -4.5%
all 5 -11.7% -20.1% 60% 40% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 40% -2.5%
10% -27.8% 20% -11.8%
15% -34.7% 0% -20.4%
20% -41.1% 0% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$3 · ×4.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.13 per $1 lost it wins $6.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage174d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 93¢ 90¢ $211 $205 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $199 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Dec 23 $100 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Dec 23 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Dec 23 $99 +$25 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Dec 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $211 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $210 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $199 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $70 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $10 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $12 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $10 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $11 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $11 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $10 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $73 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $50 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $50 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $48 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 174d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.91 · official $204.91 (match) · 23 history records