Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e3c…d370 sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$18,888 (-15%) realized −$20,697 · open +$1,809
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate62%28W / 17L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,676per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$1,409est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6,808now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,325
7 days−$6,531
14 days−$14,828
30 days−$14,828
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$17,664
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +5.4% -4.6% 69% 65% -20.3%
≤30d 39 -6.0% -14.9% 62% 59% -22.2%
≤90d 45 -3.4% -12.6% 62% 60% -24.1%
all 45 -3.4% -12.6% 62% 60% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 60% -24.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 56% -31.4%
15% -28.6% 42% -38.0%
20% -35.6% 38% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$3,614) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,230 vs −$3,172 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$6,808
Realized−$20,697
Unrealized+$1,809
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses28 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$1,409
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage78d
Avg bet$2,676
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Riddle 72¢ 100¢ $4,641 $6,416 +$1,775 (+38%)
Nocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30? No 83¢ 91¢ $359 $393 +$34 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $7,615 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $7,776 −$7,775 -100%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) Jun 23 $44 +$1 +3%
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro Jun 23 $801 +$611 +76%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $3,551 +$2,827 +80%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $5,755 −$5,745 -100%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 23 $3,253 +$1,006 +31%
Valorant: REBORN vs Ghools Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $385 +$125 +32%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 22 $646 +$200 +31%
Rainbow Six Siege: Barbie Boys vs Arcade Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacific Jun 22 $736 +$427 +58%
Overwatch: 99DIVINE vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 22 $6 +$2 +29%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $2,015 +$1,202 +60%
Game Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs Four Angry Men (+1.5) Jun 21 $949 +$552 +58%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - CN League Stag Jun 21 $1,342 +$179 +13%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $333 +$167 +50%
Rainbow Six Siege: My Queen vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - CN League Stag Jun 19 $266 +$89 +33%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group Jun 19 $445 −$445 -100%
Game Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 19 $328 −$325 -99%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 19 $2,325 +$694 +30%
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) Jun 19 $1,943 +$1,723 +89%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $4,044 +$2,305 +57%
Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $2,504 −$2,501 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $3,985 −$3,982 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $1,336 +$785 +59%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,641 +$1,360 +52%
Rainbow Six Siege: Can You Be My Enemy vs SCARZ (BO1) - Asia Pacific L Jun 13 $983 +$112 +11%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $5,018 −$5,016 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $4,258 +$2,516 +59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2,924 +$2,141 +73%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $109 +$62 +57%
Map Handicap: DNT (-1.5) vs OLDBOYS- (+1.5) Jun 12 $330 −$330 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,339 −$2,300 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $8,090 −$8,090 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $11,725 +$6,294 +54%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $6,814 +$4,976 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3,063 −$3,048 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2,028 −$2,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $3,630 −$3,614 -100%
Counter-Strike: Akimbo Esports vs InControl (BO3) - CCT North America Apr 10 $400 +$289 +72%
Valorant: WEC C vs Riddle - Map 2 Winner Apr 09 $7 +$3 +48%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Apr 07 $7,648 −$7,640 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 07 $1,110 −$1,103 -99%
Valorant: WEC C vs Riddle - Map 1 Winner Apr 07 $1,939 +$1,954 +101%
Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs STATE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Play Apr 07 $3,281 +$1,851 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 73¢ $1,201 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 71¢ $585 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 71¢ $8 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 71¢ $18 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 71¢ $130 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 70¢ $83 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 73¢ $29 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 73¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 73¢ $15 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 73¢ $2,205 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 70¢ $4 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 70¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 70¢ $18 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 70¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 70¢ $120 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 70¢ $48 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 70¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 69¢ $189 1h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 79¢ $55 14h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 79¢ $198 14h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 79¢ $21 14h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 79¢ $44 14h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 79¢ $32 14h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 79¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 79¢ $76 14h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 79¢ $79 14h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 79¢ $0 14h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 79¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 79¢ $4 14h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 79¢ $395 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,808.22 · official $6,808.22 (match) · 731 history records