Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4E 0x4e3e…cab2 other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$340 (+58%) realized +$552 · open −$212
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$173
sports 7% +$17
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +31.6% +19.1% 54% 54% +135.3%
≤30d 13 +31.6% +19.1% 54% 54% +135.3%
≤90d 13 +31.6% +19.1% 54% 54% +135.3%
all 13 +31.6% +19.1% 54% 54% +135.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.1% 54% +135.3%
10% +7.7% 46% +112.8%
15% -2.7% 46% +92.2%
20% -12.3% 38% +73.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +160% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +160% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +85% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$4 · ×15.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.6 per $1 lost it wins $17.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$552
Unrealized−$212
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage92d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $297 $95 −$202 (-68%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $41 +$17 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $112 +$313 +279%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $31 +$39 +127%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $29 +$26 +90%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 0¢ $72 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 6m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 7m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 7m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 23m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $58 35m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $41 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 26¢ $28 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 45¢ $70 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $47 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 26h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.13 · official $105.13 (match) · 33 history records