Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e3e…637c
sports · 172 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$246 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$144 · open +$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$387
Realized−$144
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses75 / 81
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions16
Markets (closed)156 / 172
History coverage17d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 16 History 156 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$489
7 days+$28
14 days−$8
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 78¢ 87¢ $170 $190 +$20 (+12%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 58¢ 56¢ $84 $81 −$3 (-4%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 55¢ 100¢ $35 $63 +$28 (+82%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 77¢ 100¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+30%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 58¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 19¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 89¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 42¢ 27¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-36%)
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Ekaterina Alexandrova 83¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 38¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 41¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce Martin Landaluce 43¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Sharks 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Kimberly Birrell 46¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $42 +$33 +80%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $174 +$96 +55%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 +$4 +126%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $3 +$4 +107%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 14 $6 +$8 +137%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 +$55 +178%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $56 +$91 +163%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $64 +$54 +84%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,946 −$1,904 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $29 +$30 +104%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 13 $40 −$49 -123%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $677 +$262 +39%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $981 +$837 +85%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $670 +$363 +54%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 11 $264 −$259 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $380 +$295 +78%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $221 +$90 +41%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $4 +$3 +73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $14 +$3 +19%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $2 +$2 +78%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $2 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $12 −$12 -97%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 +$1 +28%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $3 +$6 +234%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $4 +$8 +223%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $37 −$36 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $22 −$6 -28%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $8 +$7 +88%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $4 +$3 +62%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $6 −$6 -97%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $11 −$11 -97%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $17 −$16 -98%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $30 −$30 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +22%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $33 +$74 +223%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $43 +$46 +108%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $20 −$6 -30%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 07 $2 +$1 +36%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2 +$1 +66%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $29 −$7 -24%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $3 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 81% −$463
other 12% +$284
world 7% +$56
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $12 2m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $14 4m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $16 16m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $19 17m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $23 18m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $27 18m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $0 19m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $0 20m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $10 21m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $30 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $35 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $42 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $7 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $47 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $56 9h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $18 13h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $21 13h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $25 13h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $29 13h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $35 13h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $41 13h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $0 13h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $2 15h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 17h
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 43¢ $3 19h
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 47¢ $3 19h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 36¢ $4 19h
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +24.8% +12.9% 64% 64% -8.7%
≤30d 156 -14.1% -22.3% 48% 46% -9.5%
≤90d 156 -14.1% -22.3% 48% 46% -9.5%
all 156 -14.1% -22.3% 48% 46% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 46% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 43% -18.1%
15% -36.5% 37% -26.1%
20% -42.7% 32% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $386.59 · official $386.62 (match) · 858 history records