Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:57:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e48…828f sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$513 (-20%) realized −$623 · open +$110
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%24W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$470
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -26.5% -33.5% 52% 39% -32.0%
≤30d 46 -26.5% -33.5% 52% 39% -32.0%
≤90d 46 -26.5% -33.5% 52% 39% -32.0%
all 46 -26.5% -33.5% 52% 39% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 39% -32.0%
10% -39.9% 22% -38.5%
15% -45.7% 17% -44.4%
20% -51.0% 15% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$44 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$360
Realized−$623
Unrealized+$110
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses24 / 22
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions5
Markets (closed)46 / 51
History coverage3d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 50¢ 100¢ $50 $100 +$50 (+100%)
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Eala 52¢ 100¢ $50 $96 +$46 (+92%)
ITF Saarlouis: Pieter De Lange vs Nikolai Barsukov Nikolai Barsukov 62¢ 72¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+15%)
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Arribage/Olivetti Arribage/Olivetti 61¢ 65¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Christian Langmo Jeffrey John Wolf 71¢ 76¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $102 −$14 -14%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Ida Wobker vs. Thea Frodin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 +$10 +20%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 19 $50 +$11 +23%
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Madison Sieg Jun 19 $51 +$33 +65%
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Sorger Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Irvine: Noah Zamora vs Stian Klaassen Jun 18 $51 +$44 +86%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $50 +$23 +46%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $51 +$26 +52%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Yushan Shao Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Weronika Ewald Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
ITF Dinard: Lena Thomas Iglesias vs Margaux Maquet Jun 18 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF San Gregorio: Agnese Gentili vs Natalija Senic Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Linda Noskova vs. Diane Parry: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$28 +55%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
ITF Haskovo: Valeriia Artemeva vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Jun 18 $50 +$10 +20%
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Jun 18 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 18 $101 −$37 -36%
Set Handicap: Kitahara (-1.5) vs Lin (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Irvine: Yulia Zhytelna vs Midori Castillo Meza Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner Jun 17 $51 +$39 +76%
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF San Gregorio: Michelle Kelly Tikhonko vs Amy Stevens Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Nicolas Kobelt Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han Jun 17 $70 +$22 +32%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Arribage/Olivetti BUY Arribage/Olivetti 61¢ $51 1h
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 52¢ $51 1h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Zverev 57¢ $51 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 50¢ $51 3h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) BUY Sabalenka 71¢ $50 4h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Collignon 41¢ $51 5h
Ida Wobker vs. Thea Frodin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 83¢ $50 7h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Madison Sieg BUY Madison Sieg 60¢ $51 8h
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Sorger BUY Sebastian Sorger 25¢ $36 9h
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Christian Langmo BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 71¢ $50 11h
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Naoya Honda 49¢ $51 11h
ITF Saarlouis: Pieter De Lange vs Nikolai Barsukov BUY Nikolai Barsukov 62¢ $51 13h
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo BUY Thasaporn Naklo 63¢ $51 15h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti BUY Marianne Argyrokastriti 81¢ $50 15h
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell BUY Kenta Miyoshi 89¢ $50 17h
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina BUY Alina Shcherbinina 93¢ $50 23h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Yushan Shao BUY Yushan Shao $9 25h
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 89¢ $50 26h
ITF Irvine: Noah Zamora vs Stian Klaassen BUY Noah Zamora 53¢ $51 27h
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Weronika Ewald BUY Weronika Ewald 91¢ $50 28h
ITF Dinard: Lena Thomas Iglesias vs Margaux Maquet BUY Margaux Maquet 90¢ $50 28h
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada BUY Emily Zornada 34¢ $51 28h
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp BUY Alexandre Aubriot 81¢ $50 29h
ITF San Gregorio: Agnese Gentili vs Natalija Senic BUY Natalija Senic 94¢ $50 31h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti BUY Cash/Tracy 42¢ $51 31h
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier BUY Pedro Sakamoto 83¢ $50 33h
ITF Haskovo: Valeriia Artemeva vs Zhibek Kulambayeva BUY Zhibek Kulambayeva 83¢ $50 34h
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) BUY Bonzi 61¢ $51 34h
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth BUY Mara Guth 93¢ $50 34h
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy BUY Adrienn Nagy 90¢ $50 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.16 · official $358.95 (match) · 82 history records