Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e49…de59 politics 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$94 (-0%) realized −$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$18
politics 38% −$17
sports 5% −$59
economics 4% −$2
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 128 -3.4% -12.6% 3% 3% -9.7%
all 139 -4.6% -13.7% 6% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 3% -9.8%
10% -21.9% 3% -18.4%
15% -29.5% 2% -26.3%
20% -36.4% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×7.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage115d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $231 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $493 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $227 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $445 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $236 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $186 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $478 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $229 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $233 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $248 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $213 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $208 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $210 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 16 $209 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $231 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $246 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $239 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 11 $273 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $252 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $251 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $213 −$1 -1%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $270 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $225 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $258 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $455 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $204 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $277 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $219 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $197 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $232 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $76 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 3h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 11h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 27h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 27h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 7d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 8d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 12d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 12d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 14d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $33 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 16d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 21d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 21d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $227 22d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $227 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 393 history records