Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:38:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e4b…6cbd sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$469 (-33%) realized −$499 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$361now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$737
other 27% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-80.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -78.2% -80.3% 9% 9% -80.1%
≤30d 11 -78.2% -80.3% 9% 9% -80.1%
≤90d 11 -78.2% -80.3% 9% 9% -80.1%
all 11 -78.2% -80.3% 9% 9% -80.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.3% 9% -80.1%
10% -82.2% 9% -82.0%
15% -83.9% 9% -83.8%
20% -85.5% 9% -85.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -78% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$97 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$361
Realized−$499
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) Ghana 38¢ 55¢ $89 $128 +$39 (+43%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 40¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 31¢ 30¢ $79 $78 −$1 (-2%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Under 19¢ 18¢ $81 $74 −$6 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $88 −$88 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $91 −$91 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $98 +$136 +140%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 31¢ $81 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $83 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $84 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $88 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $90 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 38¢ $91 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 34¢ $91 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $96 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $96 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $98 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $100 23h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 38¢ $101 35h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $100 35h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $102 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $361.43 · official $361.43 (match) · 26 history records