Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:55:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4E 0x4e4f…c4fd politics 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 594d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$218 (+35%) realized +$174 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 594d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 54% +$106
politics 28% +$27
world 18% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 3 +47.6% +33.5% 67% 67% +28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.5% 67% +28.0%
10% +20.8% 67% +15.7%
15% +9.1% 67% +4.5%
20% -1.6% 67% -5.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$9 · ×10.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.57 per $1 lost it wins $20.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized+$174
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage594d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $122 $144 +$21 (+17%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 55¢ 100¢ $21 $38 +$17 (+81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 01 $163 +$115 +70%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? May 05 $171 −$9 -5%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 19 $90 +$70 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 6¢ $42 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 9¢ $83 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 94d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 94d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 94d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 94d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 94d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 94d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $11 114d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $10 115d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 115d
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 83¢ $277 357d
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 49¢ $163 412d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 67¢ $162 414d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 71¢ $171 416d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? SELL No 99¢ $159 430d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? SELL No 99¢ $1 430d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? BUY No 56¢ $80 593d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? BUY No 55¢ $10 593d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.10 · official $237.10 (match) · 123 history records