Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e51…f794 other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%19W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$26
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$23
sports 23% −$5
politics 21% −$14
crypto 11% $0
culture 5% −$6
world 5% −$2
economics 3% −$2
finance 3% −$1
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.8% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 70 -0.7% -10.2% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 120 -0.5% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 138 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses19 / 119
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage100d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $34 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $47 −$1 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $173 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $484 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $66 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $122 −$2 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $490 −$4 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $37 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $40 $0 -1%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $60 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $152 −$1 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $146 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $50 $0 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $49 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $323 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $108 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $175 −$1 -0%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $49 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $121 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $166 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $87 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $203 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $154 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $64 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 02 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $276 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $34 1h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $34 6h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $54 6h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $55 13h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $57 14h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $58 18h
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $46 18h
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $47 23h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $66 24h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $66 29h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $25 30h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $25 35h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 35h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 41h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $51 42h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $52 47h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $45 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 2d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $66 2d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $66 2d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $66 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $66 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $58 3d
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $16 3d
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $16 3d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $53 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.02 · official $49.02 (match) · 502 history records