Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:30:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e51…8fd1 other 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$20
politics 35% −$15
sports 7% +$68
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 110 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 141 +0.5% -9.1% 8% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 4% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 4% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×17.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage126d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $311 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $227 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $240 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $239 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $254 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $225 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $239 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $183 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 22 $262 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $241 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $194 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $647 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $272 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $235 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $223 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 11 $199 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $266 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $188 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $274 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $240 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $426 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $225 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $943 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $222 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $267 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $258 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $201 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $234 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $216 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $200 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $260 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $428 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $481 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $436 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $204 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 10h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 10h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 21h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 26h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 6d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 11d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 11d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 14d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 21d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 22d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $240 24d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $240 24d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $239 25d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 26d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 26d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $254 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 439 history records