Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4e52…44e7 crypto 288 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$614 (-1%) realized −$587 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate63%144W / 83L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$5,208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$9
14 days+$1
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$715
other 23% −$173
politics 10% +$64
world 7% +$188
economics 4% +$5
finance 3% +$10
sports 1% +$59
weather 1% +$30
tech 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +16.6% +5.5% 100% 33% +3.5%
≤30d 19 +25.8% +13.8% 74% 47% +30.8%
≤90d 82 +10.5% -0.0% 74% 60% +2.0%
all 227 -2.4% -11.7% 63% 33% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 33% -10.4%
10% -20.2% 22% -19.0%
15% -27.9% 13% -26.8%
20% -34.9% 8% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$61 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$5,208
Realized−$587
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses144 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions61
Markets (closed)227 / 288
History coverage250d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 91¢ 93¢ $580 $596 +$16 (+3%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $400 $410 +$10 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $372 $393 +$21 (+6%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $200 $240 +$40 (+20%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 91¢ 100¢ $200 $218 +$18 (+9%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $213 $208 −$5 (-2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $180 $191 +$12 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $184 $191 +$7 (+4%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $150 $158 +$8 (+5%)
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Yes 25¢ 10¢ $350 $133 −$217 (-62%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 74¢ 96¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 81¢ 100¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? No 86¢ 100¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? No 88¢ 100¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 73¢ 81¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $93 $100 +$7 (+7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 68¢ 100¢ $68 $100 +$32 (+47%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 56¢ 90¢ $50 $81 +$31 (+62%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 67¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 82¢ 99¢ $66 $80 +$14 (+21%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 75¢ 92¢ $60 $74 +$14 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $44 +$6 +14%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Erling Haaland score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +92%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 10 $16 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 27? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 10 $20 +$5 +24%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 10 $25 +$5 +22%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 10 $26 +$176 +675%
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 26 $13 +$7 +56%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 14 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $50 +$26 +52%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? May 10 $7 +$13 +186%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? May 10 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 08 $6 −$4 -71%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 02 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $43 +$7 +15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 02 $45 +$5 +11%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? May 02 $71 +$9 +13%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 02 $60 +$49 +82%
Will Marco Rubio visit China by April 30, 2026? May 02 $484 +$274 +57%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 20 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 26? Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? Apr 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? Apr 19 $13 +$43 +333%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $20 +$9 +43%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 16 $54 +$21 +39%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $60 +$7 +12%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Apr 16 $18 −$18 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 15 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $50 +$7 +14%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 4, 2026? Apr 09 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026? Apr 09 $8 +$2 +31%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 5, 2026? Apr 06 $6 +$2 +27%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 04 $80 +$35 +43%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $20 +$8 +38%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 04 $80 +$20 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $26 1h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 2h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $81 4h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 87¢ $33 30h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 93¢ $28 30h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 93¢ $14 31h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 87¢ $54 31h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 93¢ $5 31h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $141 31h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $43 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $30 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 9d
Will Erling Haaland score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $2 9d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 9d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $12 10d
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 10d
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $44 10d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $28 10d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $15 10d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $15 10d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $19 10d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $16 10d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $7 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $105 10d
Will Portugal win the World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $45 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,207.99 · official $5,208.04 (match) · 1201 history records