Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:15:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e52…f6d5 crypto 73 markets active 7d ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,774 (-19%) realized −$1,246 · open −$528
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%21W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$743now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$57
30 days−$1,075
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$1,927
crypto 24% −$399
politics 14% +$63
world 3% +$160
tech 2% −$2
sports 2% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +4.5% -5.4% 45% 36% -41.7%
≤90d 19 -10.5% -19.0% 47% 37% -34.3%
all 67 -22.9% -30.3% 31% 28% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 28% -28.1%
10% -36.9% 24% -35.0%
15% -43.0% 22% -41.3%
20% -48.6% 19% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$79 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$743
Realized−$1,246
Unrealized−$528
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses21 / 46
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)67 / 73
History coverage152d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $202 $162 −$40 (-20%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $155 −$45 (-23%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $200 $146 −$54 (-27%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $400 $135 −$265 (-66%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $171 $121 −$49 (-29%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $99 $25 −$74 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $414 −$408 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $105 +$334 +318%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $133 +$47 +35%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $102 +$63 +62%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,171 −$1,137 -97%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? Jun 06 $203 −$2 -1%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 06 $203 +$13 +6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 06 $501 +$145 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 04 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b May 26 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $103 +$18 +18%
No one announced as next James Bond? May 19 $202 −$5 -2%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 19 $205 +$7 +4%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 15 $509 +$91 +18%
Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 08 $499 +$70 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 23 $644 −$644 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 02 $155 −$155 -100%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $144 +$320 +223%
Will Trump say "Biden" 10+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad Feb 27 $100 +$55 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 12PM ET Feb 05 $40 −$24 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12PM ET Feb 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 12PM ET Feb 05 $40 −$30 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 05 $376 +$428 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 05 $100 −$95 -94%
Will Solana dip to $80 in February? Feb 05 $100 +$92 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $412 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $134 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $22 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $37 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $50 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $132 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $414 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $205 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $134 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $81 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 12d
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World SELL Yes 54¢ $16 12d
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 55¢ $97 12d
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 55¢ $110 12d
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 55¢ $6 12d
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 55¢ $3 12d
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 55¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $743.42 · official $743.42 (match) · 247 history records