Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:41:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e54…2cd8 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$130 (+16%) realized +$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day115.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$387
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +41.8% +28.3% 55% 50% +34.2%
≤30d 22 +41.8% +28.3% 55% 50% +34.2%
≤90d 22 +41.8% +28.3% 55% 50% +34.2%
all 22 +41.8% +28.3% 55% 50% +34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.3% 50% +34.2%
10% ← realistic here +16.0% 50% +21.4%
15% +4.8% 45% +9.6%
20% -5.5% 45% -1.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$13 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.98 per $1 lost it wins $3.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day115.0
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$12 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $150 +$89 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $38 +$31 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $121 +$42 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$38 +390%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $138 +$135 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $58 −$56 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$3 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $24 +$59 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $32 +$25 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $105 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$46 +147%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$25 +472%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records