trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers vs. Rockets | Rockets | 52¢ | 0¢ | $310 | $0 | −$310 (-100%) |
| Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $1,448 | $0 | −$1,448 (-100%) |
| US government shutdown by October 1? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $420 | $0 | −$420 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | 76ers | 46¢ | 0¢ | $8,766 | $0 | −$8,766 (-100%) |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Pistons | 37¢ | 0¢ | $98 | $0 | −$98 (-100%) |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $3,634 | $0 | −$3,634 (-100%) |
| Cavaliers vs. Raptors | Cavaliers | 61¢ | 0¢ | $1,440 | $0 | −$1,440 (-100%) |
| Rams vs. Falcons | Rams | 50¢ | 0¢ | $152 | $0 | −$152 (-100%) |
| Texans vs. Patriots | Texans | 39¢ | 0¢ | $11,053 | $0 | −$11,053 (-100%) |
| Rockets vs. Nuggets | Rockets | 52¢ | 0¢ | $362 | $0 | −$362 (-100%) |
| Bills vs. Falcons | Bills | 24¢ | 0¢ | $1,333 | $0 | −$1,333 (-100%) |
| Eagles vs. Chiefs | Chiefs | 49¢ | 0¢ | $500 | $0 | −$500 (-100%) |
| Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? | Yes | 69¢ | 0¢ | $1,222 | $0 | −$1,222 (-100%) |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 73¢ | 0¢ | $2,524 | $0 | −$2,524 (-100%) |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | 76ers | 30¢ | 0¢ | $500 | $0 | −$500 (-100%) |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | Cavaliers | 65¢ | 0¢ | $660 | $0 | −$660 (-100%) |
| Ole Miss vs. Georgia | Georgia | 66¢ | 0¢ | $6,708 | $0 | −$6,708 (-100%) |
| Lions vs. Ravens | Ravens | 69¢ | 0¢ | $2,300 | $0 | −$2,300 (-100%) |
| Cavaliers vs. Bulls | Cavaliers | 65¢ | 0¢ | $650 | $0 | −$650 (-100%) |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | Patriots | 32¢ | 0¢ | $10,084 | $0 | −$10,084 (-100%) |
| Cavaliers vs. Magic | Cavaliers | 36¢ | 0¢ | $1,083 | $0 | −$1,083 (-100%) |
| Texas vs. Georgia | Texas | 42¢ | 0¢ | $825 | $0 | −$825 (-100%) |
| Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 163m? | Yes | 46¢ | 0¢ | $94 | $0 | −$94 (-100%) |
| Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | $654 | $0 | −$654 (-100%) |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $1,521 | $0 | −$1,521 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. 76ers | May 09 | $8,895 | −$8,766 | -99% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | May 08 | $5,518 | −$485 | -9% |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | May 08 | $7,204 | −$6,962 | -97% |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | May 07 | $510 | −$500 | -98% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 06 | $1,442 | −$1,417 | -98% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 05 | $1,040 | +$1,546 | +149% |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | May 05 | $484 | +$3 | +0% |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | May 03 | $3,161 | +$1,398 | +44% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | May 03 | $8,932 | −$8,932 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Raptors | May 02 | $3,935 | +$108 | +3% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | May 02 | $815 | −$810 | -99% |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | Apr 30 | $3,802 | +$995 | +26% |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Apr 30 | $1,592 | +$280 | +18% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Apr 28 | $100 | −$98 | -98% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | Apr 27 | $8,220 | +$5,530 | +67% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Apr 25 | $200 | +$175 | +87% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | Apr 25 | $1,827 | +$1,602 | +88% |
| Cavaliers vs. Raptors | Apr 24 | $1,457 | −$1,440 | -99% |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | Apr 24 | $1,002 | +$481 | +48% |
| Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Apr 24 | $1,779 | −$1,080 | -61% |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Apr 24 | $11,363 | −$2,902 | -26% |
| Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Apr 24 | $8,122 | −$8,122 | -100% |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | Apr 24 | $965 | −$965 | -100% |
| Will International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Apr 24 | $352 | −$352 | -100% |
| LSU vs. Oklahoma | Apr 24 | $114 | −$114 | -100% |
| Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? | Apr 24 | $597 | −$597 | -100% |
| Texans vs. Jaguars | Apr 24 | $2,947 | −$2,947 | -100% |
| Eagles vs. Chargers | Apr 24 | $2,828 | −$28 | -1% |
| Rams vs. Eagles | Apr 24 | $377 | −$377 | -100% |
| Alabama vs. Indiana | Apr 24 | $1,407 | −$1,407 | -100% |
| Dodgers vs. Brewers | Apr 24 | $596 | −$596 | -100% |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Apr 24 | $51 | −$51 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Apr 24 | $2,943 | −$2,943 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Apr 24 | $9,750 | −$9,750 | -100% |
| Miami vs. Texas A&M | Apr 24 | $400 | −$400 | -100% |
| Seahawks vs. 49ers | Apr 24 | $6,300 | −$6,300 | -100% |
| Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? | Apr 24 | $1,222 | −$1,222 | -100% |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | Apr 21 | $200 | +$480 | +240% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | Apr 18 | $5,220 | +$3,133 | +60% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Apr 18 | $1,894 | +$1,423 | +75% |
| Hornets vs. Magic | Apr 18 | $1,080 | +$375 | +35% |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl | Apr 17 | $1,593 | +$284 | +18% |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner | Apr 12 | $3,922 | +$1,681 | +43% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Apr 12 | $3,600 | +$650 | +18% |
| Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Apr 07 | $2,502 | +$625 | +25% |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines | Apr 07 | $2,780 | +$771 | +28% |
| Rockets vs. Warriors | Apr 06 | $6,138 | +$962 | +16% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 04 | $21,693 | +$1,919 | +9% |
| Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Mar 31 | $184 | −$11 | -6% |
| Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Mar 29 | $731 | −$398 | -54% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. 76ers | BUY 76ers | 32¢ | $3,265 | 34d |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL Yes | 7¢ | $3,422 | 34d |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | SELL Yes | 41¢ | $186 | 34d |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | BUY 76ers | 62¢ | $5,630 | 34d |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | BUY 76ers | 30¢ | $510 | 36d |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | BUY Cavaliers | 22¢ | $450 | 37d |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | BUY Cavaliers | 27¢ | $116 | 37d |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | BUY Cavaliers | 27¢ | $14 | 37d |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | BUY Cavaliers | 27¢ | $39 | 37d |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | BUY Cavaliers | 27¢ | $8 | 37d |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | BUY Cavaliers | 27¢ | $3 | 37d |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | BUY Cavaliers | 27¢ | $4 | 37d |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | BUY Cavaliers | 27¢ | $1 | 37d |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | BUY Cavaliers | 27¢ | $21 | 37d |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | BUY Cavaliers | 27¢ | $37 | 37d |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | BUY Cavaliers | 27¢ | $5 | 37d |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | BUY Cavaliers | 27¢ | $40 | 37d |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | BUY Cavaliers | 27¢ | $4 | 37d |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | BUY Cavaliers | 27¢ | $700 | 37d |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | SELL Timberwolves | 87¢ | $2,586 | 38d |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | SELL No | 64¢ | $41 | 38d |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | BUY Timberwolves | 34¢ | $1,040 | 38d |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | SELL 76ers | 98¢ | $4,560 | 40d |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | BUY 76ers | 59¢ | $913 | 40d |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | BUY 76ers | 71¢ | $1,074 | 40d |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | BUY 76ers | 71¢ | $1,074 | 40d |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | BUY 76ers | 92¢ | $100 | 40d |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | SELL No | 61¢ | $445 | 40d |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL Yes | 6¢ | $1,611 | 40d |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | BUY Rockets | 28¢ | $0 | 41d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 59 | -18.4% | -26.2% | 46% | 36% | -32.5% |
| all | 273 | -6.4% | -15.3% | 52% | 42% | -13.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -15.3% | 42% | -13.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -23.4% | 35% | -21.3% |
| 15% | -30.8% | 27% | -28.9% |
| 20% | -37.6% | 20% | -35.9% |