Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e58…3525 crypto 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-1%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate57%64W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$35
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$47
weather 23% +$32
crypto 12% −$40
world 8% −$12
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +6.5% -3.6% 82% 18% -5.4%
≤30d 15 +4.7% -5.3% 80% 13% -6.4%
≤90d 22 -4.5% -13.6% 68% 9% -8.3%
all 112 -4.5% -13.6% 57% 20% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 20% -11.0%
10% -21.9% 14% -19.5%
15% -29.4% 8% -27.3%
20% -36.3% 5% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses64 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage209d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 −$11 -22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $80 +$8 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $131 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$16 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $55 −$4 -8%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 May 19 $7 −$4 -56%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 4 May 19 $3 $0 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 3 May 19 $18 −$6 -30%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 3 May 19 $20 −$12 -60%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 May 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 May 18 $19 +$1 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week May 18 $19 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 03 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? Mar 03 $34 −$4 -11%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? Mar 01 $34 $0 -1%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 01 $29 +$5 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $86 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 Feb 28 $200 −$73 -37%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 25 $100 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 Feb 25 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 25 $100 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $100 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 202 Feb 21 $50 +$10 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026 Feb 21 $80 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026 Feb 20 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $100 +$24 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $80 −$14 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026 Feb 18 $130 +$28 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026 Feb 17 $95 +$7 +8%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026? Feb 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 16 $30 +$7 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $36 +$1 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Feb 09 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? SELL No 78¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? SELL No 66¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 93¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 70¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $89 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $80 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $82 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $80 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 93¢ $53 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $53 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $51 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 86¢ $76 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $80 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $56 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 92¢ $54 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $51 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? SELL No 92¢ $67 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 68¢ $51 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $51 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $50 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $50 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $50 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $50 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 311 history records