Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:57:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4E 0x4e5a…9ef7 sports 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$509 (+10%) realized +$509 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%37W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days+$612
14 days−$1,091
30 days−$578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$485
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.5% +6.3% 67% 67% +36.7%
≤30d 52 -48.6% -53.5% 27% 23% -22.4%
≤90d 88 +7.6% -2.6% 42% 36% -2.9%
all 88 +7.6% -2.6% 42% 36% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 36% -2.9%
10% -11.9% 36% -12.2%
15% -20.4% 34% -20.7%
20% -28.2% 33% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +85% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$47 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$509
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses37 / 51
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage87d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $100 +$54 +54%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $76 −$75 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $140 +$147 +105%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $198 +$203 +103%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $672 +$293 +44%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $80 −$78 -98%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) Jun 11 $75 +$68 +90%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $91 +$52 +57%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $103 −$101 -98%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 06 $105 +$160 +152%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $15 −$14 -98%
LoL: Myth Esports vs Frites Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: 5 Silly Mice vs D family - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: NeverPlay vs Pitstop crew (BO3) - Exort Series Contend Jun 05 $14 −$14 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - NODWIN Clutc Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Partizan Esport vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Main Sta Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Tricked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Serie Jun 05 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Se Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playo Jun 05 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Wingman vs Nebula In Chaox (BO3) - Exort Series Main S Jun 05 $47 −$47 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO3) - Prime Leagu Jun 05 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs FC Famalicão Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 05 $111 −$111 -100%
Counter-Strike: Brute vs FC Famalicão Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Close Jun 05 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 05 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs TNC - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage Jun 05 $57 −$57 -100%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier Jun 05 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Lilmix (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Jun 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Guara Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Jun 05 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gr Jun 05 $89 −$89 -100%
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5) Jun 05 $123 −$123 -100%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Game Handicap: EXE (-1.5) vs BRUTE (+1.5) Jun 05 $87 −$87 -100%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoff Jun 05 $198 −$198 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $39 −$39 -100%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs ALGO Esports (+1.5) Jun 05 $171 −$171 -100%
Game Handicap: MKF (-1.5) vs LUA Gaming (+1.5) Jun 05 $73 −$73 -100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group St Jun 05 $88 −$88 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Z7 Esports (BO1) - Parken Challenger Jun 05 $130 −$101 -78%
Counter-Strike: Project 91 vs Entropy (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 03 $99 −$99 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC - Map 1 Winner May 31 $23 +$30 +129%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 31 $185 +$306 +165%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs INOX Division (BO3) - ESL Challenger L May 28 $53 +$52 +97%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Players - Map 1 Winner May 26 $3 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Players - Map 2 Winner May 26 $17 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A SELL eSuba 78¢ $154 55m
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 50¢ $100 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $76 41h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 48¢ $140 2d
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY BASEMENT BOYS 18¢ $11 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 53¢ $174 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $23 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $356 6d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY FURIA 32¢ $80 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $316 7d
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) BUY HEROIC Academy 52¢ $75 7d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY G2 Ares 42¢ $103 7d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 63¢ $91 7d
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Young Ninjas 39¢ $105 12d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $15 12d
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY Passion Academy 41¢ $53 14d
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY Passion Academy 43¢ $58 14d
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier BUY Lilmix 31¢ $44 14d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY CHAOS 29¢ $24 15d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY CHAOS 32¢ $12 15d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY CHAOS 31¢ $4 15d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playo BUY AM Gaming 39¢ $48 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 15d
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoff BUY Tricked 57¢ $198 15d
Counter-Strike: Project 91 vs Entropy (BO3) - European Pro League Seri BUY Project 91 47¢ $20 18d
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe BUY eternal premium 29¢ $99 18d
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Tricked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Serie BUY Tricked 29¢ $28 20d
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC - Map 1 Winner BUY Phantom 43¢ $23 22d
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage BUY Phantom 41¢ $57 22d
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY magic 37¢ $185 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 210 history records